The Frogs have a tall task ahead of them against Boise State this Saturday. It’s going to be a hostile environment against a top five team, but TCU can pull off the upset if they make it a priority to run the football and control the clock.
The Broncos have only played one game decided by less than 14 points this season and that was against Air Force. What does Air Force do well? Run the ball. The Falcons were able to control the time of possession and keep Kellen Moore off the field. The problem Air Force had is their passing game is almost nonexistent and they turned the ball over twice. TCU cannot afford turnovers in this game and they might need the defense to force at least one if they want a chance at winning.
TCU comes into this game ranked 16th in rushing yards at 227.6 per game. The Frogs have a strong stable of running backs and are coming off a season high performance last week against Wyoming. Boise State ranks 34th against the run this season allowing an average of over 140 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. That is the worst yards per carry average of any defense ranked in the top 40 against the run. TCU needs to capitalize on that. Nothing is more demeaning for a defense than getting run over all day.
The advantage TCU has that Air Force didn’t is the Frogs have a QB who is capable of making big plays down the field in the passing game. I think you will see a commitment to the running game and a few play action passes to try and loosen up the Broncos defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matt Brown throw a couple this week instead of just running every time. TCU has to control the game and keep the Boise offense off the field as much as possible. That means limit the 3 and outs, no turnovers, and no missed opportunities for points.
Boise State can be beaten, but the Frogs will need to play their best game of the season and not allow Kellen Moore to pick them apart. It will be an interesting game and I think TCU can be victorious if they come in with the right game plan.